Technical

Technical — The Price Picture

The Numbers tab will show you a business still growing: bookings and subscribers compounding, 2025 revenue up YoY, gross margins intact. The chart tells a completely different story. Duolingo trades at $105.52 — 81% below the May 2025 peak of $544.93, 52% below its 200-day average, and parked at the 4th percentile of its 52-week range. This section is about the gap between those two narratives.

1. Price snapshot

Price (USD)

$105.52

YTD Return

-39.9

1-Year Return

-66.6

52w Range Position (%)

3.9

Beta

0.88

A 67% one-year drawdown on a still-growing business is the single most important fact on this page. Either the market is wrong about the fundamentals, or the fundamentals are about to catch up to the tape.

2. Price vs 50-day and 200-day

Price is 52% below the 200-day moving average. This is a downtrend — not a consolidation, not a sideways regime. Six golden/death crosses have fired since 2022; the most recent — and the one that matters — was a death cross on 2025-08-26 at $316, since which the stock has more than halved.

**Most recent 50/200 signal:** death cross on 2025-08-26 at $316.02. Since then, DUOL has fallen from $316 to $105 — a 67% decline in 8 months.

3. Relative strength vs market and tech sector

DUOL has lost 24% of its IPO value; the broad market is up 62% and tech sector is up 107%. The gap between Duolingo and the XLK tech sector ETF has widened by roughly 130 points over four and a half years. Whatever the bull case on fundamentals, capital has been flowing out of this name and into the benchmark since mid-2025.

4. Momentum — RSI and MACD

RSI sits at 57 — neutral. That's not the story. The story is that RSI touched 20 in early April (a classic oversold print) and the MACD histogram has since flipped from deeply negative to slightly positive. This is a textbook oversold bounce signature — near-term momentum has paused the downtrend without reversing it. The MACD signal line is still below zero, meaning the broader momentum regime remains negative.

5. Volume and conviction

Three enormous volume spikes dominate the last year — and the direction of those spikes is the key finding.

No Results

Two of the top three volume days printed double-digit losses. The 2025-11-06 session cleared 13M shares (7.2x the 50-day average) on a -25.5% close; 2026-02-27 cleared 20M shares (7.8x) on a -14.0% close. The lone positive spike — August 7 2025 at +13.8% — was the last gasp before the peak. High-conviction selling, not accumulation.

6. Volatility regime

Current 30d RVol

52.3

p20 — Calm

43.9

p50 — Normal

61.3

p80 — Stressed

80.3

Realized vol is 52% — dead center of the historical range. Despite the severity of the drawdown, the market is not pricing panic. Compare this with the post-IPO regime (80%+ realized vol through 2022), and today's tape is orderly. That's actually bearish: orderly distribution over months is more durable than a single panic flush.

7. Scorecard and stance

No Results

**Stance — 3-6 month horizon: bearish.** Under 200-day, 68% 1-year drawdown, at 52-week lows — the tape has been distribution for nine months. A short-term oversold bounce doesn't flip the regime until price reclaims $140; a weekly close below $87 opens the trap door to the $60 all-time low.

Reclaim level (bullish trigger): $140. A weekly close above $140 breaks the descending channel from the August death cross, reclaims the cluster of 2022 lows as support, and puts the 200-day within striking distance.

Breakdown level (bearish confirmation): $87. A weekly close below the $87.89 52-week low voids the recent oversold bounce and projects toward the $60 all-time low from 2022.

Cross-reference with the Numbers tab

This is where technicals get interesting. The price action has been forecasting a fundamental problem for nine months: the death cross printed in August 2025, and the two largest down-volume days (Nov 2025, Feb 2026) align with quarterly earnings print dates. If the next earnings report surprises to the downside, $87 breaks and the trap door opens to the $60 low. If the business proves the tape wrong — margins, engagement, and monetization holding — the snap-back off these levels could be violent, and $140 becomes the first objective. Either way, the 3-to-6 month path runs through one of those two price levels, not through the middle.